FTMO's actual rules (current as of 2026)
- Profit target: 10% in Phase 1, 5% in Phase 2, none on the funded account.
- Max daily loss: 5% of starting balance — calculated from previous day's equity peak.
- Max overall loss: 10% of starting balance — static, not trailing.
- Minimum trading days: 4 days per phase.
- No time limit (since 2023). You used to have 30 days; that's gone.
- Consistency rule on payout: no single day can exceed 50% of total profit.
Why the common calculators are wrong
Most online FTMO calculators ask for win rate, average win, average loss, and risk-per-trade — then output a probability based on a simple binomial model. Three things break that:
- Path dependency. Even if your expected value is positive, a bad sequence early in the challenge can breach the 5% daily loss limit and end the run. A binomial model can't see sequences.
- Daily caps interact with drawdown. The same loss might breach daily-loss before it touches overall drawdown — and vice versa. The order matters.
- Consistency is silent. You can hit 10% target and still get rejected at payout if 60% of profit came from one day.
A proper Monte Carlo simulator plays out 10,000 attempts trade-by-trade, applying every rule on every step. That's what changes the answer from "62% pass rate" to the honest one — usually 20–40 points lower.
Inputs that actually matter
- Win rate — measured over at least 100 trades on your real strategy.
- Average win and average loss as a % of account, not in dollars. R-multiple won't capture daily-loss exposure.
- Trades per day — more trades per day means more daily-loss exposure.
- Risk per trade — the biggest single lever on pass rate.
Try it on FTMO
PropFirmBacktester ships with the FTMO ruleset preset. Plug in your numbers, get a probability of passing Phase 1, Phase 2, and reaching first payout — plus a breakdown of what kills the failing runs (usually trailing drawdown or daily loss, in that order).