By PropFirmBacktester Research — Independent research & analytics team specialising in prop-firm evaluation data
The full workflow
1
Log every trade in the journal
Open Journal and add each real trade — date, asset, dollar result, notes. Takes ten seconds per trade. The journal instantly computes your win rate, average winner ($), average loser ($), trades per day, profit factor, expectancy, Sharpe ratio, and plots your cumulative equity curve. This is your measured edge — not a guess.
2
Push your live stats into the simulator
Once you have at least ~50 trades, click "Use these stats in simulator". Your real win rate, avg win, avg loss and trades per day are prefilled into the simulation engine. The simulator now runs against your numbers, not a hopeful guess.
3
Configure the prop firm ruleset
Set account size, profit target, max drawdown (static or trailing), daily loss, consistency rule, min trading days for Phase 1. Toggle a second phase on if your challenge has one. Then set the funded-account rules: trailing DD on funded, min profit buffer, min profitable days, eval cost and profit split.
4
Set your bankroll and payout assumptions
Turn on Long-term risk of ruin and enter the total bankroll you'll allocate to challenges. Set avg withdrawal per paying account, % of funded accounts that pay, and number of challenges (5–200). These drive expected ROI and risk of ruin.
5
Run thousands of simulations
Click Run simulation. The engine plays your strategy trade-by-trade through thousands of independent challenges, then chains those results across the number of attempts you set. Results appear in seconds.
6
Read the verdict, iterate, compare
Anchor on Probability of getting a withdrawal, Expected profit per challenge, and Long-term risk of ruin. Change firms, account sizes or phase counts and re-run. Then head back to the journal, log the next batch of trades, and keep the loop tight.
7
Log every challenge in the performance tracker
Once you buy a challenge, open PropFirm Performance and record it: purchase date, prop firm, account size, cost ($), outcome, withdrawn ($) and notes. If it blew, drag the point-of-failure slider. The tracker builds your net equity curve, 11 stat cards and a per-firm breakdown so you know whether your real-world challenge activity is actually profitable.
The journal explained
The journal is the input layer of the toolkit. Every stat it computes maps directly to a simulator input or a health check.
Win rateOutput
What it means
Percentage of logged trades that closed profitable.
How to use it
Feeds the simulator's win-rate input. Below 45% you need a large avg-win/avg-loss ratio to make the math work at most firms.
Avg winning trade / avg losing tradeOutput
What it means
Mean dollar profit on winners and mean dollar loss on losers, in the currency you traded.
How to use it
Pushed straight into the simulator. Together with win rate, they define your per-trade edge before any prop firm rule is applied.
Trades per dayOutput
What it means
Total trades divided by unique trading days in the journal.
How to use it
Drives how fast you hit the profit target — and how exposed you are to the daily loss limit. Higher isn't automatically better.
Profit factorOutput
What it means
Gross winnings divided by gross losses. 1.0 = breakeven; above 1.3 is generally considered healthy.
How to use it
Sanity check on your edge before you spend money on evaluations. Below 1.0 and no firm will save you.
Expectancy / tradeOutput
What it means
Average dollars won or lost per trade across the whole journal.
How to use it
If expectancy is negative on your personal account, no prop firm ruleset makes it positive. Fix the strategy first.
Sharpe ratio (annualised)Output
What it means
Mean daily P&L divided by standard deviation of daily P&L, scaled by √252.
How to use it
A quick read on how smooth your equity curve is. Higher Sharpe = fewer painful drawdowns = less chance of getting caught by trailing drawdown or daily loss rules on a funded account.
Cumulative equity curveOutput
What it means
Running total of P&L in trade insertion order (date, then order added on same-day trades).
How to use it
Visual gut check. A curve that grinds up steadily behaves very differently in the simulator than one that lurches up and down for the same total P&L.
The performance tracker explained
The performance tracker is the accountability layer. It turns simulator projections into a real-world ledger: every challenge purchase, every payout, and how far each blown account got before it died. Below is every card exactly as it appears in the portal.
Net equity curveOutput
What it means
Cumulative withdrawals minus cumulative eval fees, plotted by purchase date.
How to use it
The single chart that answers whether your prop-firm activity is compounding. If it's pointing down, no simulator projection matters — you're funding the firm.
Net resultOutput
What it means
Total withdrawals minus total eval fees.
How to use it
Positive means you've extracted more than you paid. Negative means you're net-paying for challenges even if some passed.
Total withdrawn / Spent on evalsOutput
What it means
The two raw totals behind net result: every payout you've logged, and every dollar of evaluation fees you've paid.
How to use it
Read them together. High withdrawals with even higher eval spend means you're passing occasionally but buying far too many attempts.
ROI on feesOutput
What it means
Net result divided by total eval fees, shown as a percentage.
How to use it
Return per dollar of challenge spend. Compare it to the simulator's Expected ROI over N challenges — a big gap means your model inputs are too optimistic.
Challenges boughtOutput
What it means
Total number of evaluations logged in the tracker.
How to use it
Your sample size. Pass rate and averages below only become meaningful once this reaches double digits.
Failed in challenge / Failed while funded / Reached fundedOutput
What it means
Counts of challenges that died before funding, died after funding, and those that reached funded status.
How to use it
The split tells you where to spend effort: lots of challenge-stage failures means a rule mismatch; lots of funded blowups means the post-funding drawdown rules are too tight for your style.
Pass rateOutput
What it means
Challenges that reached funded status divided by total challenges bought.
How to use it
Compare this to the simulator's Probability of passing. If reality is much lower, your live execution or the firm's rules differ from your assumptions.
Avg withdrawal / Avg eval costOutput
What it means
Mean payout per logged challenge and mean cost per evaluation.
How to use it
If avg withdrawal isn't comfortably larger than avg eval cost divided by your pass rate, the activity can't be profitable — change firm, size or strategy.
Avg point of failure — in challengeOutput
What it means
Average of the 0–100% slider across challenges that failed before funding: how far you got toward the profit target when the account died.
How to use it
A low average means you're blowing up early — sizing or daily loss. A high average (80%+) means you're dying near the finish line, usually from trailing drawdown or over-pressing to close out the target.
Avg point of failure — while fundedOutput
What it means
Same slider for funded accounts: how far you got toward the first payout before blowing it.
How to use it
Consistently short of the payout gate means the profit buffer or min profitable-days rule, not your edge, is the binding constraint. Model that firm's funded rules in the simulator before buying again.
Breakdown by firmOutput
What it means
Per-firm bars showing net result, challenges bought, how many reached funded, and average withdrawal.
How to use it
Identifies which firms actually pay you and which ones just collect eval fees. Concentrate spend on the firms with positive net result and cut the rest.
Date-range filterOutput
What it means
Start and end date inputs that filter every card, the equity curve and the firm breakdown by purchase date.
How to use it
Use it to compare performance before and after a strategy change, or to exclude your first learning-phase months from the numbers.
The inputs explained
Strategy (auto-filled from the journal)
Win rate
Percentage of trades that close profitable. Auto-computed by the journal from your logged trades.
Avg win ($)
Average dollar profit on winning trades. Use nominal dollars — not R-multiples.
Avg loss ($)
Average dollar loss on losing trades. Positive number; the simulator handles the sign.
Trades / day
Average daily trade count. Drives how fast you hit the profit target and how exposed you are to the daily loss rule.
Challenge ruleset — Phase 1 (and optional Phase 2)
Account size
The evaluation account size you're testing ($25K, $50K, $100K, $200K). All dollar limits scale from this.
Profit target
Dollar profit required to pass the phase. Copy directly from the firm's rules.
Max drawdown (static or trailing)
Total drawdown limit. Trailing DD ratchets up with new equity peaks and is modelled trade-by-trade — the single biggest reason free calculators are wrong.
Daily loss limit
Hard daily loss cap from the previous day's balance. Toggle off for firms without one.
Consistency rule
Cap on single-day P&L as % of total profit at payout. Silently ignored by most free tools; enforced on every payout check here.
Min trading days
Minimum days you must trade before passing. Forces low-frequency traders to overtrade.
Max days
Deadline for the phase, if the firm has one.
Second phase (optional)
Toggle on to add Phase 2 with its own target, drawdown, daily loss, consistency and trailing-DD switch.
Funded account rules
Max DD on funded
Drawdown limit on the funded account after passing.
Trailing DD on funded
Toggle if the firm keeps trailing drawdown active on funded accounts (most do).
Daily loss limit (funded)
Daily loss cap on the funded stage.
Min profit buffer
Total profit required before any withdrawal is released.
Min profitable days
N days where daily profit clears a set bar — a common payout gate.
Eval cost, payout split and long-term inputs
Eval cost
What you pay per challenge attempt. Folds into break-even withdrawal and expected profit per challenge.
Profit split
Your share of funded-account profits at payout (typically 70–90%).
Avg withdrawal per paying account
Slider for expected payout size, so you can stress-test conservative vs optimistic assumptions.
% of funded accounts that pay
Override the simulated payout rate for extra stress-testing.
Number of challenges
How many attempts to chain together (5–200). Long-run EV and risk of ruin scale with this.
Long-term risk of ruin (toggle + bankroll)
Turn on and enter your total bankroll for challenge fees. The card turns green, amber or red so you spot danger instantly.
The outputs explained
Every output below is the average across thousands of simulated challenges — not a single backtest, not a feeling. Here's what each number is really telling you.
Probability of getting a withdrawalOutput
What it means
The headline number: joint probability that you pass every challenge phase AND survive the funded account long enough to actually withdraw real money.
How to use it
Above ~25–30% with rule-compatible strategy, the challenge is usually worth taking. Below 10%, fees are eating you alive. This is the single number that decides 'go' or 'no go'.
Long-term risk of ruinOutput
What it means
Probability of burning through your entire bankroll across the number of challenges you set. Colour-coded: green (safe), amber (fragile), red (danger).
How to use it
If the card is red, you're under-capitalised for this firm or this strategy. Lower the number of challenges, drop to a smaller account size, or fix the edge before continuing.
Probability of passingOutput
What it means
Probability that your strategy clears all challenge phases (Phase 1 + Phase 2 if two-phase) without breaching any rule.
How to use it
If this is high but Probability of getting a withdrawal is low, your strategy passes but doesn't survive to a payout. Usually a sign the trailing drawdown will kill the funded account fast.
Probability of payout once fundedOutput
What it means
Conditional on being funded, the probability you reach the first scheduled payout without blowing the account.
How to use it
Low number here means your equity curve doesn't survive the post-funding rules. Consider a firm with a less aggressive trailing drawdown or higher daily loss.
Withdrawal to break evenOutput
What it means
Total dollars you need to withdraw before eval fees are recouped.
How to use it
If break-even is higher than the firm's typical payout, most funded accounts won't get you into profit — even the ones that pay.
Cost to reach fundedOutput
What it means
Expected eval-fee outlay to get one funded account, given your pass rate.
How to use it
Compare across firms — a cheaper eval isn't cheaper if your pass rate is half the size.
Challenges until 1st payoutOutput
What it means
Expected number of attempts before your first withdrawal, on average.
How to use it
Long numbers here mean you need cash and patience. Match it to your bankroll before starting.
Expected days / winning challengeOutput
What it means
Average number of trading days to pass when the challenge does pass.
How to use it
Tells you how long capital is tied up per successful attempt. Useful for planning cash flow and how many challenges to run in parallel.
Expected days / losing challengeOutput
What it means
Average days before the challenge is failed in the simulations that fail.
How to use it
If this is very short, the daily loss or trailing drawdown is killing you early — usually a strategy/rule mismatch. If long, you're slowly bleeding the profit target.
Why challenges fail (breakdown)Output
What it means
Share of failed challenges attributable to each rule: trailing drawdown, daily loss, missed phase target, ran out of time.
How to use it
Tells you which rule is actually killing you. If trailing DD dominates, look at position sizing or a firm without trailing. If daily loss dominates, cut trade frequency.
Why funded accounts don't pay (breakdown)Output
What it means
Share of funded blowups vs never-reached-buffer, on accounts that got funded.
How to use it
Blowup-dominated = trailing DD or daily loss is the problem. Buffer-dominated = you're not making enough profit to clear the payout gate — trade more or bigger.
Expected profit per challengeOutput
What it means
Average net dollars per attempt — payouts minus fees, averaged across all outcomes.
How to use it
Positive = strategy compounds over the long run. Negative = every attempt destroys expected value. Multiply by number of challenges for expected net P&L.
Expected ROI over N challengesOutput
What it means
Net expected P&L divided by total fee outlay across the number of challenges you set.
How to use it
Positive ROI = paying for challenges is a profitable activity over time. Negative ROI = you're funding the prop firm's revenue. This is the bottom-line number that should drive your decision.
simulation equity pathsOutput
What it means
Fan chart of simulated cumulative P&L across N challenges: expected average, P25/P50/P75 highlighted, plus a sample of other runs.
How to use it
If the spread is huge, your strategy is high-variance and a single result is misleading. A wide gap between P25 and P75 means the outcome depends heavily on luck; a tight fan means the edge is robust.
Common mistakes when reading the output
- Skipping the journal. Guessing your win rate defeats the whole point. Log at least 50 real trades before you trust any simulator output.
- Not tracking challenge purchases. The simulator tells you the odds; the performance tracker tells you if you're actually winning. Log every challenge, payout and failure stage or you'll never know your real ROI.
- Looking only at Probability of passing. Passing doesn't mean getting paid. Always anchor on Probability of getting a withdrawal and Expected profit per challenge.
- Ignoring risk of ruin. A positive-EV strategy can still bankrupt an under-capitalised bankroll. Always check the risk-of-ruin card is green before scaling attempts.
- Ignoring trailing drawdown or consistency. The two rules most free calculators skip — and the two that kill the most funded accounts.
- Not comparing firms. The same strategy can have a 45% withdrawal probability at one firm and 12% at another. Try at least 2–3 rule sets.
How to use the simulator to actually make money
- Keep the loop tight. Journal weekly → refresh simulator → buy the challenge → log it in the performance tracker → adjust firm/size/frequency → back to the journal. That's the long-term game.
- Validate before you buy. Run your journalled edge through the exact firm's rules before spending a dollar on an evaluation.
- Compare firms head-to-head. Same journal stats, three different rulesets — pick the firm with the highest Expected profit per challenge, not the one with the flashiest marketing.
- Reconcile simulator with reality. If your tracked pass rate is far below the simulator's prediction, your live execution, slippage or the firm's rules differ from your model. Update inputs accordingly.
- Stress-test changes. Tweaking position size or trade frequency? Re-run before risking real capital.
- Use it as a kill switch. If Expected profit per challenge is negative on every firm, or risk of ruin is red, your strategy isn't ready — keep working on the edge before paying any evaluation fee.
One failed $300 evaluation pays for the simulator many times over.
The whole point of the tool is to never wonder again whether a challenge is worth taking. You'll know — with numbers — before you click buy.
Another failed challenge: hundreds of dollars.
Knowing before you pay: $49.
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