Prop firms · Forex / CFD

Blue Guardian Challenge: Simulated Pass Rate, Rules & Real EV (2026)

This page answers three questions for Blue Guardian: what the actual eval and funded-account rules are, how a real trader profile fares against them across 10,000 simulated runs, and whether the long-run expected value justifies the eval fee. Rules verified as of 2026-07-15. Independent — not affiliated with Blue Guardian.

The ruleset

Account sizes$10k · $25k · $50k · $100k · $200k
Eval cost (mid tier)$350
PhasesTwo-phase
Profit target10% (P1) / 5% (P2)
Max drawdownStatic · 8%
Daily loss limit4%
Consistency ruleNone
Min trading days3
Max daysUnlimited
Profit split (funded)85%
Payout buffer1%
Min profitable days (funded)3
Trailing on fundedNo
Payout frequencyEvery 14 days

Simulated results

Three trader profiles, 10,000 simulated evaluations each against Blue Guardian's exact rules. Pass rate is the eval only. Payout is conditional on passing. Joint withdrawal is the probability of reaching a first payout end-to-end. P&L is expected value over 50 attempted challenges at the mid-tier account.

Scalper · 58% wr · 6/day
Pass
57.0%
Payout
74.7%
Joint withdrawal
42.6%
P&L · 50 runs
$1.5k
Balanced · 50% wr · 3/day
Pass
0.5%
Payout
53.3%
Joint withdrawal
0.5%
P&L · 50 runs
-$17.3k
Swing · 42% wr · 1/day
Pass
16.5%
Payout
55.3%
Joint withdrawal
9.1%
P&L · 50 runs
-$12.7k

Why traders fail this challenge

Failure breakdown from the balanced-archetype simulation. This is what typically ends a Blue Guardian run — not what traders think ends it.

Trailing / max drawdown breach7%
Daily loss limit hit58%
Ran out of time / never reached target35%
Consistency rule violation0%

Rules explained

How Blue Guardian's drawdown works

Blue Guardian uses a static drawdown of 8% of the starting balance. Static drawdown is the friendliest structure — the floor doesn't move as you profit. See trailing drawdown explained for the full mechanics.

How the daily loss limit is calculated

Blue Guardian caps intraday drawdown at 4% of the account. It's evaluated end-of-day on realised P&L, and a single losing session over the cap ends the challenge — not just the day.

Consistency rule

Blue Guardian has no consistency rule on the standard evaluation. See the consistency rule explained for the full mechanics and how it changes your real pass rate.

Is Blue Guardian worth it?

Blue Guardian's Rapid Guardian one-phase model uses a tight 4% drawdown against a 10% target — a demanding ratio that lowers raw pass rates for higher-variance strategies. Elite Guardian two-phase is the more accessible option. Reasonable payout cadence when funded.

Frequently asked

What is Blue Guardian's trailing drawdown?+

Blue Guardian uses a static drawdown of 8% of the starting balance. This is the single biggest driver of long-run pass rate for most traders.

What win rate do you need to pass Blue Guardian?+

Not a fixed number. Our simulator runs three archetypes against Blue Guardian's exact rules: the balanced 50%-win-rate trader passes 0.5% of the time; the scalper archetype and swing archetype produce meaningfully different numbers on the firm page above. Passing is a function of edge, variance, and how the ruleset punishes lumpy P&L — not win rate in isolation.

How much does Blue Guardian cost long-term?+

The mid-tier Blue Guardian evaluation is $350. Over 50 attempted challenges, our balanced-archetype simulation nets -$17.3k — that's eval fees paid on failures netted against payouts collected on the joint 0.5% of runs that reach a withdrawal.

Does Blue Guardian have a consistency rule?+

No consistency rule on the evaluation. Verify current terms — firms add and remove these rules regularly.

Is Blue Guardian worth it in 2026?+

Blue Guardian's Rapid Guardian one-phase model uses a tight 4% drawdown against a 10% target — a demanding ratio that lowers raw pass rates for higher-variance strategies. Elite Guardian two-phase is the more accessible option. Reasonable payout cadence when funded.

Run YOUR numbers against Blue Guardian's ruleset

The archetypes above are examples. Feed your own win rate, average win/loss and trades per day into the simulator to see your real pass and payout probability at Blue Guardian.

Run my simulation

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Based on publicly listed rules as of 2026-07-15. Independent — not affiliated with Blue Guardian. Rules change; verify with the firm before paying. Simulations are estimates based on a barrier-crossing model of daily P&L, not guarantees.